The Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions have a lot in common.
Both teams are extremely respected by Las Vegas oddsmakers, their tortured fan bases crave high-level football more than oxygen, and they’ll likely go as far in the NFL playoffs as their talented quarterbacks will take them.
Josh Allen’s Bills and Jared Goff’s Lions meet Sunday afternoon at Ford Field in a game many are anointing as a potential Super Bowl LIX preview. Besides, we’ve all had enough of “Patrick Mahomes and Friends” in February.
I’m kidding, Chiefs fans. Deep breaths.
The ascension of Buffalo and of Detroit isn’t too surprising, especially if you peeked at Super Bowl odds before the season. Sure, the Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers had shorter prices, but the Bills and Lions were right there.
“We had San Francisco rated No. 1 in the NFC and Detroit No. 2,” Westgate SuperBook VP of risk management Ed Salmons told FOX Sports.
“Detroit’s rise isn’t really a surprise. And the Lions were rolling this year until all the injuries on defense started to take a toll. That’s why they closed -3 against Green Bay and that’s why the line is so low this week.
“Buffalo was third in the AFC behind Kansas City and Baltimore before the season. As the year has gone on, Buffalo and Baltimore moved past Kansas City in the ratings, but Kansas City keeps winning somehow.”
As for Sunday, Salmons’ shop opened Detroit -3 with a total of O/U 52.5. The “3” didn’t last 30 minutes. Wise guys were quick to whack Bills +3 at low limits, then made another push at +2.5. Some spots are down to 2.
The total is up to 54.5, so bettors are hoping for fireworks.
“Highest total of the season,” Salmons acknowledged. “When the smart guys are betting us ‘Over’ on Sunday and Monday, we need to raise it quickly.
“It’s a game where you figure there won’t be a lot of field goal kicking. Campbell knows what he’s dealing with and that’s why he’s been even more aggressive than usual, because he knows his defense is shorthanded. Buffalo stays aggressive, too. I don’t expect that to change.
“It’ll be like a tennis match, and you need to hold serve.”
Are Sam Darnold and the Vikings a serious threat to Jared Goff and the Lions?
Salmons was impressed with Buffalo’s performance last week against a desperate Los Angeles Rams team. The Rams blitzed out to a 24-14 halftime lead thanks to a blocked punt touchdown, but Buffalo didn’t quit and still went blow for blow after the break. It was a three-point game in the final minutes.
“A lesser team gets blown out by the Rams,” Salmons said. “I didn’t understand Buffalo’s clock management down the stretch, but the Bills were unstoppable in the second half and who knows what happens if they get the ball back.”
Buffalo’s offense also handled its business without Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid, weapons that could both return for Sunday’s showdown.
Speaking of weapons, they’re everywhere on the Lions.
“Goff has them all over the field,” Salmons opined. “The offensive line is so good, David Montgomery is playing great, [Jahmyr] Gibbs can take it to the house on any play and [Amon-Ra] St. Brown and Jameson Williams are finally 100 percent. They’re so deep that [Sam] LaPorta is an afterthought right now.
“They can come at you in so many ways and the coach is super aggressive, which gives the team a ton of confidence. You can see the confidence on the sideline. And I don’t think Campbell’s decisions are reckless, either.”
One last thing worth pointing out is how the Lions have had their issues over the last couple years against dual-threat quarterbacks. Look no further than last season when Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields rushed for 162 yards and a score in two meetings against Detroit.
Chicago probably should’ve won both games.
How bad does Josh Allen need to win this year’s MVP?
Aaron Glenn’s defense has faced mostly one-trick quarterbacks this season and most of them were pocket passers. The lone exception was Anthony Richardson, who I could beat in a game of darts with my opposite hand.
“I remember Fields running like crazy against Detroit,” Salmons admitted. “They haven’t faced any guys like him this year. They didn’t play Philadelphia or Baltimore. This is the first real test against a legit dual threat.
“Josh Allen is the biggest threat out there.”
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and BetQL Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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