Week 11 may have been when the MVP race got serious. Josh Allen took Buffalo’s game into his own hands on fourth-and-2 with 2:17 remaining, rumbling for a bruising 26-yard touchdown run to beat the previously unbeaten Chiefs. Detroit’s Jared Goff bounced back from a five-interception disaster with a game for the ages against the Jaguars: 412 passing yards, four touchdowns and a perfect 158.3 passer rating.
But will Allen or Goff ultimately show enough to dethrone reigning MVP Lamar Jackson or two-time winner Patrick Mahomes? In this week’s roundtable, FOX Sports’ NFL experts pick their MVP front-runners, debate whether Broncos QB Bo Nix has passed Commanders phenom Jayden Daniels in the Offensive Rookie of the Year race, explore whether the Chiefs losing was a good thing for them, identify which 9-win team has the most upside down the stretch and more.
Let’s get started.
How many players do you consider to be realistic MVP candidates? Who’s the front-runner?
I’d say five: Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes. Allen has the slight edge over Jackson for me at the moment, after the former scored the game-winning touchdown to beat the previously undefeated Chiefs.
No quarterbacks are playing better than Allen and Jackson, and Goff and Mahomes are quarterbacking the current No. 1 seeds. Hurts leads one of the NFL’s hottest teams in the Eagles. Running backs Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley certainly deserve honorable mention for how dominant they’ve been, but we all know MVP is a quarterback award. — Ben Arthur
It’s a two-man race between Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Allen has played well of late, and the win over the Chiefs gives him something Jackson couldn’t get done this year. Also, Allen has never won the award, so I think that gives him a sentimental angle for the voters. However, Jackson is tops in passer rating (117.3), second in passing yards (2,876) and passing touchdowns (25). And he also leads all quarterbacks with 584 rushing yards. It’s hard to ignore those impressive numbers from the reigning NFL MVP. — Eric D. Williams
I think there are three: Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. I didn’t want to include Mahomes, because he hasn’t been very good this year. But if he goes on a tear in these final games — which he’s capable of doing — then he’ll instantly enter the conversation.
Lamar has been consistently incredible for years (which was how he won last year’s MVP) and so, with Derrick Henry in that offense, it feels fresh and exciting enough to draw votes for a second consecutive season. Jackson’s statistical case is obvious: 2,876 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, three interceptions, 584 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns.
But then there’s the front-runner: Allen. He just beat the Chiefs. He’s elevating a supporting cast that doesn’t quite pass the sniff test, even after the arrival of Amari Cooper. And Allen is having one of the best statistical seasons of his career. It’s such a close race between Jackson and Allen that it’ll probably come down to the final four weeks of the regular season. — Henry McKenna
[McKenna: How Josh Allen’s divergence is helping him close the gap on Patrick Mahomes]
Is Josh Allen the front-runner for MVP?
Will the Chiefs’ loss in Week 11 actually help them in their three-peat quest?
I always go back to something an NFL coach told me prior to the Buccaneers winning the Super Bowl in 2021. The teams that reach the mountaintop aren’t the ones that have had smooth sailing along the way. It’s the teams that have gone through something and come out the other side together.
Now, I don’t think losing to one of the best teams in the league like the Bills can really be considered “going through something,” but it certainly takes the pressure of the perfect season off the Chiefs’ plate. They now have something to rally around to get back on track with an ever-shrinking margin in the AFC. Kansas City can also play a little bit more freely without having to keep a perfect record. The Chiefs have made it through various injuries this year, and it hasn’t always looked pretty, but they have come out the other side every time. It’s why you can’t ever bet against them, and it’s why they have the utmost belief in themselves. — Carmen Vitali
It’s already lofty to pursue a three-peat, which has never been done in the Super Bowl era. But if the Chiefs tacked on a bid at an undefeated season? That sounds exhausting. No, seriously. Think about how exhausting it has been to watch Kansas City this year. The Chiefs are amazing and exciting, but I feel like I need a 12-hour night of sleep after every one of their games. Imagine how they feel. And it’s not like that was going to stop — every opponent would have thrown everything it had at taking down the undefeated Chiefs.
Now, the mood changes. The stakes for every game decrease. And that’ll be a relief for K.C. So, yes, losing will absolutely help the Chiefs. It’ll lift a weight off the team. It’ll change their mindset and help them focus on the Super Bowl. And teams can learn a lot from losses. It’s good to know how opponents can beat you before the playoffs, when a loss leads to instant elimination. Better to know your weaknesses now. — Henry McKenna
Which of the NFL’s 9-win teams has the most upside down the stretch: the Lions, Chiefs or Bills?
I think it’s the Lions, just by their sheer dominance this season. They’ve outscored opponents by 159 points and the next-closest is the Bills at plus-106. They’re the highest-scoring team by a full field goal a game, rank in the top five in scoring defense and are third in turnover margin. Their remaining schedule is plenty challenging — facing the Bills, Packers and Vikings still — but if the NFC playoffs go through Detroit, the Lions will be a heavy favorite, and the most well-rounded challenger to the Chiefs and stopping their three-peat. — Greg Auman
I feel like the Bills have the most upside because they aren’t quite at the top. The Lions are dominating every team they play — and playing with their food in the process. They’re the team already at the top. They face a tough schedule down the stretch, but they’re built for it. The Bills, on the other hand, are closing the lead the Chiefs have on the AFC. Buffalo could conceivably get the first seed if Kansas City takes its foot off the gas. The Bills own the tiebreaker thanks to their win over the Chiefs on Sunday. Buffalo sits at 9-2 on the season and Kansas City is 9-1. That’s a very closable margin. — Carmen Vitali
Has Bo Nix passed Jayden Daniels in the Offensive Rookie of the Year race?
I think he has, but it’s close. Daniels’ historic start and his unbelievable Hail Mary touchdown overshadow the fact that he just hasn’t been as dominant in recent weeks. The No. 2 overall pick hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in two weeks, and his completion rate has fallen significantly over the past month and a half. The Commanders have shut down the idea that the rib injury he suffered earlier in the season is still bothering him, but it’s difficult not to speculate.
While Daniels has cooled off, Nix’s growth seems to be hitting an exponential curve. His play since the start of October rivals the best quarterbacks in the league, regardless of experience. He also has more total touchdowns than Daniels (Nix has 18, Daniels with 14).
Daniels still edges Nix in several categories, but at the current trajectory of both players, Nix looks like the guy right now. — Ben Arthur
[Arthur: How Broncos QB Bo Nix vaulted himself into Offensive Rookie of the Year race]
I admire Nix’s stellar play as of late, but it’s still Daniels for me. First, he made the signature play of the season with the Hail Mary to defeat fellow rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. And he’s mainly responsible for the quick turnaround of a downtrodden franchise that’s been the laughingstock of the league for years. Daniels still leads all rookies in completion percentage (68.7%), passer rating (99.6) and passing yards (2,338). And at 7-4, Washington currently has better than an 80% chance of making the playoffs, while the 6-5 Broncos are at about 60%. — Eric D. Williams
This is when the Eagles’ swoon started last season. Is that a thing of the past or could it happen again?
I think their progress defensively suggests it won’t happen again. The second half of last season was such a free-fall, and it carried over to the start of this year. But Vic Fangio has found the right combination of young defensive backs – Philadelphia is now the NFL’s No. 1 defense in yards allowed, and the Eagles have given up only 13.8 points per game in their six-game win streak. They face the Rams, Ravens and Steelers in the next four weeks before closing the year with a lap through the division, but the NFC East is theirs for the taking. — Greg Auman
It’s hard to imagine this Eagles team falling apart the way last year’s version did. The signs of an impending disaster were there last year even during their 10-1 start. They weren’t playing well defensively. Their offense always looked off. Jalen Hurts was struggling. They were abandoning their rushing attack too often. Players were unhappy and their coaching was a dysfunctional mess.
That’s not at all the case this season. The Eagles seem relaxed and happy. Nick Sirianni has remembered who they are offensively: a power running team. And defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has returned the structure and swagger to a defense that had neither most of last season. They look much more like the 2022 Eagles — a team loaded with offensive talent, strong on defense, and feeling like they’re unbeatable.
Teams like that rarely fall apart. Their foundation is too strong. Last year, even when they were winning, the Eagles didn’t look like they had much of a foundation at all. — Ralph Vacchiano
In Week 3, we asked which team will win more games this season: John Harbaugh’s Ravens or Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers. Both teams enter Monday’s Harbaugh Bowl with 7 wins and at least a 90% playoff probability. So, which team will be more dangerous in the playoffs?
The Ravens certainly have a more experienced head coach and quarterback when it comes to the postseason. However, defense and running game travel in the playoffs. And under new defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, the Bolts have the better defense. Along with that, as Jim Harbaugh has said, the Chargers have a quarterback built to handle cold weather games. Justin Herbert’s strong arm will allow him to cut through wind, rain and other inclement weather conditions if L.A. has to play on the road. So I’ll take the Bolts here. — Eric D. Williams
[Williams: Meet the man who has the Chargers playing historically stingy defense]
For starters, I think it’s safe to say that no one in the AFC will want to face one of the Harbaugh brothers in the playoffs. They have both proven to be remarkable coaches and outstanding team builders. And they both have strong rushing attacks and elite quarterbacks, two things teams usually need to win in the postseason.
But while I have concerns about Baltimore’s defense — particularly the secondary — I think the Ravens are going to be the more dangerous playoff team. They’re battle-tested, having been to the AFC Championship last year, while the Chargers have played just one playoff game in Justin Herbert’s four seasons. And their rushing attack, led by Derrick Henry, is just so hard to stop.
Both of them have a chance to win a game or two in the postseason. But the Ravens are a legitimate threat to advance all the way to Super Bowl LIX. — Ralph Vacchiano
The following writers contributed to this story: Ben Arthur (@benyarthur); Greg Auman (@gregauman); Henry McKenna (@McKennAnalysis); Ralph Vacchiano (@RalphVacchiano); Carmen Vitali (@CarmieV); Eric D. Williams (@eric_d_williams).
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